Mapping local housing need using the new standard method

The new standard method for calculating local housing need has changed – now based on dwelling stock rather than population estimates as a more stable starting point. Building on this, our Strategic Land and Spatial Intelligence teams have mapped housing need across 6,439 settlements in England, providing detailed insights into how each area could grow to support evidence-based local planning.

As part of the sweeping amendments to the National Planning Policy Framework in December 2024, the Labour Government changed how local authorities calculate local housing need. This change to the methodology was necessary to bring the approach in line with the Government’s pledge to deliver 1.5 million homes within five years of taking power.

This has been achieved through a change to the standard method calculation, relying on dwelling stock estimates as a starting point, instead of population estimates. This is an important change to the starting point, which sees the replacement of historically changeable and volatile population estimates with the more stable data of dwelling stock estimates.

The use of this data as a starting point also allows for something quite interesting. It allows for the ability to look at what a local area assessment might look like, drilling down below a local authority level. And that’s exactly what we’ve done.

Our Planning team has applied the standard method to the Government's published list of built-up areas in England. This study has drawn in areas ranging from small villages to major cities, reflective of the diverse settlement patterns across the country. As an output, the dwelling baseline of 6,439 settlements has been mapped and aligned with their corresponding local affordability uplifts.

For ease, our Spatial Intelligence Team has mapped this information below, presenting housing need estimates for each settlement over singular or fifteen-year periods.

This tool is an expression of how each settlement could be expected to grow, unencumbered by constraint and local ambition. However, it is ultimately up to local authorities to decide and manage how growth actually happens through the planning processes. But tools like this can be valuable in supporting those decisions by providing useful data and evidence to inform discussions.

This best-fit exercise has allowed us to consider a singular methodology to capture the area boundaries across England and Wales. On a more granular level, it is possible to explore different metrics of local growth and consider how the use of different boundaries could present a different output. To learn more, contact our Strategic Land experts below.

**The figures presented are driven purely by data provided as inputs into the standard method process, with adjustments made to best-fit settlement boundaries. The assessment has not taken into account any policy initiatives which might inform where growth should go, nor has it taken into account any environmental or policy constraints that may otherwise affect the ability to meet such target. The figures are presented unvarnished, as ‘policy off’ estimates of how an area could be expected to grow, and do not represent the Government’s planned targets for towns and villages.